Demographic Changes
Karolina DM
This is a report about demographic changes in the world since 1960 to 2020. For this report I choose selected demographic factors, like:
- Fertility Rate,
- Birth Rate,
- Death Rate,
- Life Expectancy
Fertility Rate (total, births per woman) is:
“rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year”.
(source of definition & data: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN)
The country with the highest fertility rate in 2020 is Niger. The fertility rate is 6.74.
The country with the lowest fertility rate in 2020 is Korea, Rep.. The fertility rate is 0.84.
This is the list of countries with the highest fertility rate (ordered by highest to lowest). Table shows fertility rate difference declining from 1960 to 2020.
| Country | Fertility Rate drop since 1960 to 2020 |
|---|---|
| Congo, Dem. Rep. | -0.28 births per woman |
| Czech Republic | -0.38 births per woman |
| Latvia | -0.39 births per woman |
| Estonia | -0.40 births per woman |
| Hungary | -0.46 births per woman |
| Sweden | -0.51 births per woman |
| Gabon | -0.52 births per woman |
| Japan | -0.66 births per woman |
| Chad | -0.70 births per woman |
| Niger | -0.72 births per woman |
This map shows fertility rate in 2020.
Fertility rate drops globally.
The country of EU with the highest fertility rate in 2020 is France. The fertility rate is 1.83. The high fertility rate in France is the result of counting a combined result with dependent territories in the whole world (e.g. French Guiana, French Polynesia, Martinique).
The country of EU with the lowest fertility rate in 2020 is Malta. The fertility rate is 1.13.
This map shows fertility rate in EU countries in 2020.
This chart shows fertility rate in EU countries in 2020.
There are many correlates of the fertility rate. One of them is the
age of the mother when she gives birth of her first child. Correlation
between fertility rate and mean age of woman at birth of first child is
-0.3272972 The higher the age of birth of
first child, the lower the fertility rate.
This chart shows fertility rate and mean age of woman at birth of first child (in EU countries in 2020).
As we can see in Eastern European countries belonging to the EU, the fertility rate is higher and the age of women giving birth to the first child is lower than in other EU countries.
One of the potential correlates of fertility rate and the age at
which women give birth to first child may be a greater prevalence of
contraception and therefore - more frequent use of it. Correlation
between fertility rate and prevalence of contraceptive methods is
0.1908338 This correlation is very
weak.
(Source of data about prevalence of contraceptive methods in EU countries: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2019_contraceptiveusebymethod_databooklet.pdf)
This interactive graph shows the distribution of the variables: the fertility rate, the average age of the first child’s birth, and the prevalence of contraception used (hover over a dot on chart for more information).
Another correlates of fertility rate could be GDP per capita, which is:
“The indicator is calculated as the ratio of real GDP to the average population of a specific year. GDP measures the value of total final output of goods and services produced by an economy within a certain period of time. It includes goods and services that have markets (or which could have markets) and products which are produced by general government and non-profit institutions. It is a measure of economic activity and is also used as a proxy for the development in a country’s material living standards. However, it is a limited measure of economic welfare. For example, neither does GDP include most unpaid household work nor does GDP take account of negative effects of economic activity, like environmental degradation”.
(data & definition source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_08_10/default/table).
We want to check if GDP correlates with the factors, which we discussed earlier.
Correlation between fertility rate and
GDP is 0.0665992 This
correlation is really weak. But SD of fertility rate is low:
0.16 , what it means, that the values
observed are centered around the mean value.
Correlation between mean age at the birth of first
child and GDP is
0.6453908 This is strong correlation.
The situation is similar in the case of the next correlated pair of
variables: contraceptive methods and
GDP. Correlation is
0.636342 and also is strong.
This graph shows the correlations between the variables discussed above.
We can see how the results of the dependencies between pairs of variables are distributed as scatter plots. Correlations are presented numerically.
Birth Rate (crude, per 1000 people) is:
Crude birth rate indicates the number of live births occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration.
(data & definition source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN)
The country with the highest birth rate in 2020 is Niger. The birth rate is 45.21.
The country with the lowest birth rate in 2020 is Korea, Rep.. The birth rate is 5.3.
This is the list of countries with the highest birth rate (ordered by highest to lowest). Table shows birth rate difference declining from 1960 to 2020.
| Country | Birth Rate drop since 1960 to 2020 |
|---|---|
| Gabon | -2.21 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Sweden | -2.80 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Czech Republic | -3.10 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Chad | -4.60 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Hungary | -5.10 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Luxembourg | -5.80 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Denmark | -6.20 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Somalia | -6.22 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Channel Islands | -6.28 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Congo, Dem. Rep. | -6.54 crude (per 1000 people) |
This map shows birth rate in 2020.
This chart shows birth rate in the whole world in 2020 divided into
continents.
The highest birth rate in 2020 is observed on the African continent, and the lowest - in Europe. This is also confirmed by the calculations.
| Continent | Mean | Median | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | 30.89 | 32.34 | 7.39 |
| Asia | 17.35 | 17.17 | 6.71 |
| Europe | 10.11 | 9.73 | 2.55 |
| North America | 14.58 | 13.94 | 4.53 |
| Oceania | 19.69 | 20.60 | 7.08 |
| South America | 16.91 | 17.42 | 2.94 |
| NA | 20.12 | 18.73 | 8.98 |
The literature emphasizes the relationship between the participation of women in the labor market and the fertility rate (Ahn & Mira, 2002; Engelhardt et all., 2004; Luci-Greulich & Thévenon 2013).
Femal labor force (% of total labor force) indicates:
“a percentage of the total show the extent to which women are active in the labor force. Labor force comprises people ages 15 and older who supply labor for the production of goods and services during a specified period”.
(definition & data source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TOTL.FE.ZS).
Correlation between birth rate in 2020 and
labor force in female group in EU is weak:
0.2101388.
The distribution of the labor force in the group of women is as follows:
But correlation between labour force and birth rate has changed over the years:
- in 2020:
r `cor(EU_BirthRate$X2020, EU_LaborFem$LF2020, use = "complete.obs") - in 2015:
r `cor(EU_BirthRate$X2015, EU_LaborFem$LF2015, use = "complete.obs") - in 2010:
r `cor(EU_BirthRate$X2010, EU_LaborFem$LF2010, use = "complete.obs") - in 2005:
r `cor(EU_BirthRate$X2005, EU_LaborFem$LF2005, use = "complete.obs") - in 2000:
r `cor(EU_BirthRate$X2000, EU_LaborFem$LF2000, use = "complete.obs") - in 1995:
r `cor(EU_BirthRate$X1995, EU_LaborFem$LF1995, use = "complete.obs") - in 1990:
r `cor(EU_BirthRate$X1990, EU_LaborFem$LF1990, use = "complete.obs")
As we can see, in the years 1995-2005 the correlation was negative, now it is positive. It should be remembered that it is, however, weak. Family support policy and spendings on family benefits has also a great impact on birth rate, especially in the Central and Eastern Europe (Beaujouan & Berghammer, 2019).
Death Rate (crude, per 1000 people) indicates:
“the number of deaths occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration”.
(data & definition source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CDRT.IN)
The country with the highest death rate in 2020 is Bulgaria. The death rate is 18.
The country with the lowest death rate in 2020 is Qatar. The death rate is 1.29.
This is the list of countries with the highest death rate (ordered by highest to lowest). Table shows death rate difference increasing from 1960 to 2020.
| Country | Death Rate increase since 1960 to 2020 |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 9.90 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Lithuania | 7.80 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Ukraine | 7.22 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Romania | 6.70 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Russian Federation | 6.30 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Latvia | 5.20 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Poland | 5.00 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Greece | 4.90 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Hungary | 4.30 crude (per 1000 people) |
| Croatia | 4.10 crude (per 1000 people) |
This map show death rate in 2020.
This boxplot shows death rate in 2020.
The highest death rate in 2020 is observed on the European continent, and the lowest - in Asia. This is also confirmed by the calculations.
| Continent | Mean | Median | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | 7.67 | 7.40 | 2.01 |
| Asia | 6.03 | 5.98 | 2.52 |
| Europe | 10.98 | 10.90 | 2.96 |
| North America | 7.32 | 7.61 | 1.99 |
| Oceania | 6.21 | 6.25 | 1.07 |
| South America | 6.77 | 6.69 | 1.21 |
| NA | 7.37 | 7.70 | 0.71 |
The country with the highest death rate in 2020 in EU is Bulgaria. The death rate is 18.
The country with the lowest death rate in 2020 is Ireland. The death rate is 6.4.
This is graphical representation of death rate in 2020.
This map show death rate in 2020 in EU.
Reasons for increasing the death rate (in EU in 2017) are:
- circulatory disease (37%),
- cancer(25%),
- other (17%) like: mental and behavioral disorders, endocrine, nutriitional and metabolic deseases, and all remaining causes,
- respiratory diseases (8%),
- external causes of death (5%),
- diseases of digestive system (4%),
- diseases of the nervous system (4%)
Animation shows death rate in one of the EU country - Poland since 1960 to 2020:
As we can see death rate in Poland increases since 1960. Moreover, the current pandemic situation is likely to have a significant impact on the above indicator.
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected death rate in EU countries, as the animation below shows:
Life expectancy at birth (total, years):
indicates the number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.
(data & definition source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN)
The country with the highest life expectancy in 2020 is Hong Kong SAR, China. The life expectancy rate is 85.39.
The country with the lowest life expectancy in 2020 is Central African Republic. The life expectancy is 53.68.
This is the list of countries with the largest life expectancy gains from 1960 to 2020
| Country | The greatest increase since 1960 to 2020 (in years) |
|---|---|
| Maldives | 41.86 total (years) |
| Bhutan | 37.55 total (years) |
| Yemen, Rep. | 36.26 total (years) |
| Timor-Leste | 35.98 total (years) |
| Nepal | 35.48 total (years) |
| Oman | 35.41 total (years) |
| Tunisia | 34.87 total (years) |
| China | 33.37 total (years) |
| Afghanistan | 32.73 total (years) |
| Turkey | 32.56 total (years) |
This map show life expectancy in 2020 in the whole world.
The factors which have impact for life expectancy are among others:
income per capita, the rate of hospital beds, medical staff (Cervantes, López & Rambaud, 2019);
universal health coverage, child vaccination, sanitary conditions (Ranabhat et all., 2018);
real income per capita, educational level (Keneci & Murthy, 2017);
economic growth, health expenditure, clean water, improved sanitation conditions, carbon emission, access to drinking water (Rahman, Rana & Khanam, 2022)
The country of EU with the highest life expectancy in 2020 is Malta. The life expectancy is 82.65.
The country of EU with the lowest life expectancy in 2020 is Bulgaria. The life expectancy is 73.61.
This map shows life expectancy in EU countries in 2020.
As we can see, the citizens of the Mediterranean basin, countries of the western and northern parts of the European Union achieve the longest life expectancy.
Mental factors can also affect life expectancy. Therefore, it was
checked whether depressive symptoms correlate with life expectancy in
the EU countries. Correlation between life expectancy
and depressive symptoms is
0.3426103 It is a weak correlation.
This graph shows the correlations between the life expectancy, GDP (per capita) and depressive symptoms.
Correlation between life expectancy and
GDP is 0.6318131 - it is
a strong correlation.
In summary, we see fertility rate and birth rate falling over the years, while death rate and life expectancy are increasing. It is very important to follow dmeographic changes in countries and individual parts of the world so that governments can react early and shape their policies on public health, pro-family policies, etc.It is impossible to track demographic changes in isolation from the data on armed conflicts and the related migration of people, climate change, and the pandemic situation.